Do PAC endorsements matter in Durham politics?
A ten-year review of election results shows no local candidate has been elected without the endorsement of either the People’s Alliance and/or Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People.
This BCPI: Open Sources (BCPI.OS) article is written by Tate Halverson and Lucia Constantine. Brian Callaway contributed. BCPI.OS stories focus on delivering data-driven discoveries from publicly-available datasets.
With the Democratic primary fast approaching, voters in Durham may be looking to endorsements by the city’s political action committees (PACs) and others to make their decisions. Two PACs have dominated Durham politics recently: the People’s Alliance (PA) and Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People (DCABP). In the past decade, every winning candidate in local races has been endorsed by at least one of these two PACs.
While less influential today, Friends of Durham is another long standing Durham PAC that enjoyed years of strong political sway. The Durham Association of Educators (DAE) has also been included in this analysis even though they are technically a teacher’s advocacy organization. Their behavior of making endorsements, printing electoral material and being present at the polls appear to constitute the legal definition of a PAC from NCGS § 163‑278.6(74), but the DAE has not registered locally as a PAC.
PACs are organized for the purpose of raising money to elect and defeat candidates and can give money to candidates, national party committees or other PACs. There are limits to how much PACs can donate to other committees per election; in North Carolina contributions are capped at $6,400. PACs also support endorsed candidates through mailers, advertisements, door knocking campaigns, and poll greeters. From a candidate’s perspective, getting an endorsement is a key part of campaign strategy because it expands their own infrastructure and reach.
Any Durham voter can attest to the barrage of sample ballots provided to them before voting, conveniently color-coded for recognizability (pale green for the PA, goldenrod for the DCABP, etc), so that they may vote in accordance with PAC recommendations. What they may not understand is how these endorsements are made and who is behind them.
Although each PAC has its own reputation and endorsement process, there are some similarities: candidates fill out questionnaires, a subset of PAC members interviews candidates and the general PAC membership then votes on endorsements. With the exceptions of the DAE and DCABP which both have more specific member requirements, PAC membership is often open to anyone “committed to and willing to uphold the organization’s mission and vision”—although payment of dues is often required to vote.
The People’s Alliance has had the largest endorsement participation lately with nearly 300 people attending the 2024 endorsement meeting according to their press release. It is common for less than 650 people to decide PAC endorsements in a community of more than 330,000 residents. That is less than 0.2% participating in the endorsement process.
To understand the possible influence of each PAC, BCPI.OS compared endorsements to election results in the last ten years across local governing boards: the Durham Board of Education, Durham County Commission, and Durham City Council.
PAC Influence in Durham
Over the past decade, the PA had the highest rate of success with 87% of endorsed candidates for local governing boards elected. The DAE (81%), DCABP (49%), and Friends of Durham (51%) were also influential with considerable variability throughout election years.
The only notable decline of PA success occurred in the City Council elections of 2021, when the People’s Alliance endorsed a slate of candidates where three of the four had close ties to then-Councilmember Jillian Johnson. Marion Johnson (no relation) had been Jillian Johnson’s former campaign manager. AJ Williams worked for a nonprofit organization which Jillian Johnson founded and still served as Board Chair. Javiera Caballero, that year’s mayoral candidate who suspended her campaign immediately after the primary election, was appointed in 2018 with Jillian Johnson’s backing. The Indy Week expressed, “the council shouldn’t be an echo chamber” when they endorsed a slate nearly opposite of the People’s Alliance.
Durham Board of Education
Over the entire evaluation cycle, the People’s Alliance has successfully endorsed every candidate for the Board of Education. Though they are nonpartisan races, Board of Education elections take place during even-year partisan primary elections and are the last races on what are sometimes long ballots.
There were only seven total uncontested races within the Durham City Council, Durham County Commission, and the Durham Board of Education elections from 2013 to 2023, and six of those uncontested races were for School Board seats. Ballots during this 2024 primary feature three additional uncontested School Board races, meaning, including this election cycle, 39% of the last 23 School Board races have been uncontested.
Durham County Commission
The entire five-seat Durham Board of County Commissioners is selected on the same four-year term that matches the presidential election cycles. County Commissioner races are the only local governing board seats that are partisan races, which means the top five vote getters in the primaries from each party advance to the general election in November. There has not been a Republican to run for Durham County Commission since 2004, which effectively means the Democratic primary acts as the determinate election.
The County Commission approves budgets for the school system, the Sheriff’s Office, the library system, our local public health and social services programs and other general functions of the County government.
Durham City Council
Outside of the 2021 race discussed above, the People’s Alliance has fared well in City Council and Mayoral races over the entire period of review. City Council elections occur on odd years with a primary in October followed by a general election in November. Turnout is historically much lower for City Council races than the even year elections.
PACs TBD?
The success rate of PACs in Durham is a bit of a chicken-or-egg conundrum: do the endorsements make a candidate win or are the endorsements chasing after the winning candidates? The fact that no candidate has won without either the PA or DCABP endorsement and that these endorsements seem particularly effective for less-visible, down- ballot even-year races like the school board suggests endorsements do help candidates win in Durham.
But political trends are never a sure thing. Local PACs have come and gone, raised and fallen.
In a community facing urgent and pressing issues such as multiple public worker pay crises (sanitation and DPS), 911 dispatcher shortages, environmental challenges from sprawl and a housing crisis, Durham voters may find themselves questioning whether or not guiding ballots are leading to successful governing structures in our community.
The 2024 Primary Election is this Tuesday, March 5th with polls open at local precincts from 6:30AM - 7:30PM. Early voting concludes this Saturday, March 2nd at 3pm.
Additional information on Durham PACs discussed in this article and their endorsement processes are provided below.
Durham Association of Educators
Founded: Unknown (Durham County Library has documents from a teacher’s association with the County schools in 1898-1902 and a constitution and bylaws from a teacher’s association with the City schools in 1929)
Endorsement Process: Candidates are interviewed by an endorsement committee and then interested members (limited to Durham Public Schools educators, support staff, and administrators) discuss and vote on final endorsements. The self-stated mission of the DAE is a commitment to “developing worker leadership within Durham Public Schools, organizing our school buildings and communities, and winning the schools that our students, parents, and educators deserve.” Membership dues vary based on position with full-time teacher dues at over $500 per year and full-time classified staff dues at over $300 per year.
Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People
Founded: 1935
Endorsement Process: Candidates complete a questionnaire and are interviewed by the Durham Committee's political committee. Following the interview, the political committee makes recommendations to the Durham Committee's general body. The general body then votes on whether to accept the recommendation. A two-thirds majority vote is needed to overturn the recommendation. General body voting members must be in good standing, which means they pay their $25 in dues at least 30 days before the meeting in which they want to vote.
Founded: 1989
Endorsement Process: A committee of leaders in the Friends of Durham interviews candidates and presents its findings in a public forum for member approval. They use criteria that reflect their core values to select candidates which for this election cycle included: economic development, safe communities with an emphasis on funding law enforcement organizations, a high-quality educational system for all students, funded at the necessary levels for achievement, advancement and preparation for our students’ futures; effective governance with fiscal accountability for the tax revenues generated from all segments of Durham’s economic drivers.
Founded: 1976
Endorsement Process: Candidates complete a questionnaire and are interviewed by the PA’s Political Action Committee. The committee makes recommendations to the general body during the endorsement meeting. Members can debate the qualities and merits of any candidate during the meeting. Endorsements are decided by a majority vote of the membership. Anyone who has been a member for more than 60 days may vote at a PAC endorsement meeting. Past members can renew their membership up to the day of the endorsement meeting. New members can only vote if they join 60 days beforehand. Anyone who “in good conscience” ascribes to the vision of the People’s Alliance can join the People’s Alliance. Individual membership dues are $50 per calendar year or $95 per household.